USA

Year to Date (YTD)

Commentary: Through the month of March, economic uncertainty pertaining to the US economy kicked in as the Trump administration enacted tariffs on several countries. At 2.8%, the latest inflation numbers also took a blip, although this is expected to notch up as various countries retaliate against the tariffs. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rate policy as recent data showed that the US economy added 151,000 jobs, which was less than expected. The latest unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%. Equity markets had a poor run with the S&P 500 now down at 4.1% YTD, after briefly trading at correction territory.

Europe & UK

Year to Date (YTD)

Commentary: The ECB has diminished the outlook for GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points for both 2025 and 2026 but left it unchanged for 2027. The macroeconomic projections noted that the weaker outlook was mainly due to downward revisions to exports and, to a lesser extent, to investment, reflecting a stronger impact of uncertainty than previously assumed. Competitiveness challenges are also likely to persist for longer than previously anticipated. The ECB has notched down interest rates by another 25bp as the ECB ensures that the disinflation process is well on track. In Germany, parties agreed on a plan for a spending boost on defense and investment in the country and a debt brake overhaul, which should see considerable spending on infrastructural projects. European markets maintained their positive run with the Eurostoxx 50 already up by over 10% YTD.

Malta

Year to Date (YTD)

Commentary: The Central Bank of Malta has raised its prediction for GDP growth in 2025 to 4% as domestic demand and net exports increase. Tax cuts and steady employment rates are anticipated to be major drivers of private consumption. The labour market is still predicted to be tight with a forecasted 3% unemployment rate. The government deficit-to-GDP ratio is expected to improve, falling below 3% after 2025, while inflation is expected to continue its downward path, hitting 2% by 2027. Notwithstanding the good news, risks still exist, with possible budgetary pressures, geopolitical conflicts, and uncertainties surrounding international commerce. Local corporates listed a number of positive results with the equity markets up by 4.3% YTD.